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Ironically, the fees in most exchanges are high. Most investors will certainly have a target price in mind. The reason may be related to technical, fundamentals or even based on general opinion in social media platforms.
Furthermore, personal needs or plans may also make an investor believe that a particular price would be enough to achieve short-term or medium-term objectives. For example, an investor may be extremely happy to exit with 10x returns. Another may not be satisfied even with 20x returns. Almost a majority of crypto investors fall in this category. In most cases, any of the two scenarios are possible after they sell their holdings.
Ideally, an investor would like to book profit near the peak, which is quite difficult to predict. Given the windfall gain, there is a middle option available to such crypto investors. If it rises further, still, the investor can watch the rally without any guilty feeling. This system ensures that an investor will make a decent profit and money related worries are substantially eliminated. The system also balances potential gains from possible losses.
Professional traders mostly opt for a combination of technical and fundamental factors, in addition to overall market sentiment to decide an entry or exit from a trade. These indicators are used individually or in combination along with support and resistance levels to decide an entry or exit. Traders also use either or both day and day moving average to quickly understand the overall price trend. When the short-term moving average day crosses above the long-term day moving average, it is construed as a buy signal, and vice versa.
The image above shows the day moving average green remains above day moving average red for the past three months. To confirm the trend any of the momentum indicators mentioned above are used. For example, a stochastic indicator should be rising when there the moving averages have made a bullish cross over. It should be remembered that all the indicators and even moving averages are lagging indicators i.
To minimize price lag, traders general prefer to use an exponential moving average. It should be remembered that attempts to reduce the lag in a big way would result in frequent entries and exits as noise small price movements will not get filtered.
The smartness of a trader lies in interpreting these signals precisely as all indicators have some disadvantages. For example, a stochastic indicator with a reading of over 80 indicates an overbought scenario. However, if the indicator does not fall below 80 then the price would continue to rise and selling Bitcoin at that time will be a bad idea. The image above shows clearly that the price of Bitcoin had appreciated even when the stochastic indicator is in the overbought region.
A trader should remember not to sell his holding before the stochastic indicator falls below the reading of Likewise, if the stochastic indicator has a reading below 20 and the price is trading below day moving average then a rebound will be short-lived. On the other hand, if the price is above day moving average as in the image above then we can expect further appreciation in price.
Along with moving averages and a momentum indicator, professionals also use resistance and support levels. In the below diagram, when we use resistance and support levels, decisions can be taken in a better manner. The green circle indicates the point where support levels have been tested and stochastic indicator is rising. That would be the best entry point with minimum risk.
When the stochastic indicator is below the reading of 20, the price has broken the support level temporarily. So, even though stochastic indicator confirms an oversold scenario long positions should be avoided. The inverse is true for booking a profit in Bitcoin trade. Price volatility leads to formation of repetitive patterns in financial markets. Such price patterns can be identified using trend lines. When a price pattern indicates a change in trend, it is called as reversal pattern.
Alternatively, when a price pattern signals a continuation of prevailing trend, it is called as continuation pattern. Price patterns are frequently formed in all time frames intra-day, daily, weekly and monthly. As human beings unconsciously repeat their past behaviour, patterns get repeated on charts.
By identifying those patterns, a trader can enter or exit the position before the break out actually happens. Bitcoin has formed several continuation and reversal patterns in the past as illustrated below:. Pennants — it is drawn using two converging trendlines, which are moving in different directions up trendline and down trendline. Flags — it is drawn using two parallel trendlines, which can stay flat, slope up or slope down.
Wedges — it is drawn with two converging trendlines, which are angled either up or down. Unlike a pennant, both trendlines point to the same direction in a wedge pattern. Head and Shoulders — it appears at market tops. The pattern is made up of an initial peak, followed by a bigger one.
The final peak mimics the first. Price reversal is confirmed once the neckline is broken. Inverse head and shoulders results in a bullish break out. The pattern can last between seven weeks and roughly 65 weeks. Ascending triangle — This pattern is seen during an upward trend and is regarded as a bullish continuation pattern. Rarely, it can be formed as a trend reversal pattern at the end of a downward trend. Irrespective of where they occur, the pattern indicates bullishness.
Descending triangle — This pattern is seen during a downward trend and is regarded as a bearish continuation pattern. Rarely, it can be formed as a trend reversal pattern at the end of an upward trend. Irrespective of where they occur, the pattern indicates bearishness. You will look years younger immediately.
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